[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 241530
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241530 
ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-241700-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0984
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1030 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK AND MUCH OF AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 241530Z - 241700Z

TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND/DEVELOP S AND SEWD FROM SERN KS AND
SWRN MO INTO MUCH OF ERN OK AND AR THROUGH THE AFTN HOURS.  DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE.  WW WILL BE ISSUED
SHORTLY.

WELL-DEFINED MCV WAS MOVING SSEWD THROUGH SERN KS BETWEEN KICT-KCNU
AT 15Z AND SHOULD DRIFT INTO NERN OK/NWRN AR THIS AFTERNOON.  STRONG
ELEVATED TSTMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN A NW-SE BAND TO THE W AND S OF
KJLN...ALONG THE NOSE OF THE STRONGEST 925 MB LLJ CORE.  SEVERE HAIL
APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH THESE STORMS.

DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS ACROSS AR WAS HEATING RAPIDLY WITH TEMPERATURES
ALREADY IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.  VSBL SATELLITE SHOWS A CU
FIELD EXPANDING ACROSS WRN AR...A POSSIBLE SIGN THAT SURFACE BASED
TSTMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE DESTABILIZING WARM SECTOR SHORTLY. 
FARTHER W IN ERN OK...MID/HIGH CLOUD CANOPY WILL MITIGATE STRONG
SURFACE BASED HEATING UNTIL LATER THIS AFTN.  BUT...TSTMS SHOULD
BEGIN TO FORM JUST AHEAD OF THE MCV AS IT DROPS SEWD INTO NERN OK
AFTER 18Z. 

PROFILERS SHOW A 40-45 KT H5 JET MAX WRAPPING SEWD AROUND THE MCV
AND THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE SEWD WITH TIME...ENHANCING THE VERTICAL
SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS.  AS THE CELLS MATURE...BOW ECHOES MAY EVOLVE
AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT ALONG WITH
LARGE HAIL.

..RACY.. 05/24/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...

36899426 36239261 34979150 33969128 33349265 33509387
33939465 35439605 36849633 

WWWW