[MCD] SWOMCD

Tue May 24 06:05:29 UTC 2005

ACUS11 KWNS 240615
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240614 
OKZ000-KSZ000-240745-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0981
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0114 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN/S-CNTRL KS INTO N-CNTRL/NERN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 318...

VALID 240614Z - 240745Z

THROUGH 10-12Z...A CORRIDOR OF DAMAGING WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH
FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS MAY SPREAD SEWD ACROSS S-CNTRL KS/N-CNTRL
OK...POSSIBLY INTO NERN OK. A NEW WW WILL BE REQUIRED WITHIN THE
NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS.

AS OF 0556Z...DDC RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED LEADING EDGE OF MCS GUST
FRONT FROM RUSSELL AND RUSH COUNTIES SWWD TO MESOSCALE VORTEX OVER
HODGEMAN...SWD THROUGH FORD AND THEN SWWD INTO MEADE COUNTIES.
WELL-DEFINED REAR INFLOW JET HAS DEVELOPED TO THE S OF THIS
MESOSCALE VORTEX WITH GREATER THAN 64 KT INBOUND VELOCITIES VERY
CLOSE TO GROUND LEVEL OVER HODGEMAN AND FORD COUNTIES. ASOS
OBSERVATIONS FROM GCK AND DDC INDICATE THIS FEATURE IS ASSOCIATED
WITH 55-70 MPH SURFACE WINDS.

06Z MESOANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THIS MCS IS MOVING/PROPAGATING SEWD
ALONG IMMEDIATE COOL SIDE OF QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING
FROM INTERSECTION WITH GUST FRONT E OF LBL SEWD THROUGH CNTRL OK AND
INTO SWRN AR. AXIS OF LOCALLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS /I.E. UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S/ N OF THIS BOUNDARY IN CONJUNCTION WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES OF
1500-2500 J/KG FROM NEAR DDC SEWD THROUGH S-CNTRL KS/N-CNTRL OK INTO
NERN OK AND W-CNTRL AR.

SYSTEM FORWARD SPEED OF AROUND 40 KTS AND RESULTING STORM-RELATIVE
INFLOW OF 50-60 KTS WHEN COUPLED WITH DOWNSTREAM INSTABILITY AXIS
SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND THREAT TO SPREAD AS FAR SE AS
NERN OK BY 12Z. POSSIBLE FAILURE MODES OF SYSTEM ARE: 1)
STRENGTHENING CAP ACROSS INSTABILITY AXIS WHICH WOULD TEND TO WEAKEN
GUST FRONT CIRCULATION...AND POTENTIAL FOR GUST FRONT TO OUTRUN
PARENT CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WITH LEADING EDGE UPDRAFTS BECOMING
PROGRESSIVELY TILTED UPSHEAR WITH TIME.

..MEAD.. 05/24/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...GLD...AMA...

38160164 39129973 38349819 37399602 36599511 35939522
35369605 35399695 36069873 37330122 

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