[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 240238
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240238 
KSZ000-OKZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-240345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0980
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0938 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN CO...WRN KS...SWRN NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCH 315...317...

VALID 240238Z - 240345Z

BASED ON CURRENT CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND ANALYSES OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...BOTH WW 315 AND SEVERE WW 317 MAY BE REPLACED WITHIN NEXT
1-2 HOURS.  MOST OF NERN CO AND SWRN NEB HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANTLY
STABILIZED BY OUTFLOW AND SEVERE POTENTIAL HAS DIMINISHED MARKEDLY. 
ELSEWHERE...STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS BENT/KIOWA COUNTIES
CO ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS REMAINDER SERN CO INTO SWRN KS
AND WW 317.  OTHER TSTMS BETWEEN GLD AND LINCOLN COUNTY CO -- AS OF
230Z -- ARE MOVING SEWD ALONG COMBINED COLD FRONTAL/OUTFLOW
SURGE...AND COULD MERGE WITH FORMER ACTIVITY INTO MCS.

WITH DECOUPLING BOUNDARY LAYER...EXPECT FLOW JUST ABOVE SFC TO
STRENGTHEN...ENHANCING STORM-RELATIVE LOW LEVEL INFLOW AND POTENTIAL
FOR CONVECTION TO FORWARD-PROPAGATE SEWD.  MOST PROBABLE AREA FOR
MCS DEVELOPMENT ATTM APPEARS TO BE CO/KS BORDER REGION NEAR WRN
PORTION WW 317.  THIS AREA IS ALONG NWRN NOSE OF LOW LEVEL MOIST
AXIS -- ANALYZED ON 00Z 850 AND 925 MB CHARTS FROM CENTRAL OK NWWD
ACROSS WRN KS. THIS CORRIDOR ALSO CORRESPONDS TO RUC FCST K INDEX
AXIS THROUGH REMAINDER EVENING.  GREATEST ELEVATED BUOYANCY SHOULD
REMAIN OVER SAME AREA WITH MUCAPES 2000-3000 J/KG.  PRIMARY CONCERN
ATTM IS RELATIVELY STRONG CINH EVIDENT ACROSS THIS REGION...WHICH
MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE.

..EDWARDS.. 05/24/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...

36990052 36980137 36990251 37050322 37410366 37750378
38370362 38800379 39130376 39400346 39860163 40070043
40039967 39729942 38799917 37909892 37229906 36979933 

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