[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 241041
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241040 
ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-241215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0982
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0540 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL/SERN KS AND N-CNTRL/NERN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 319...

VALID 241040Z - 241215Z

THROUGH 12Z...GREATEST DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FROM
BUTLER/COWLEY COUNTIES ESEWD ACROSS FAR SERN KS...AND POSSIBLY SWD
INTO NERN OK.

AS OF 1015Z...ICT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED WELL-DEFINED MCV JUST N OR NW
OF HUT WITH LEADING EDGE OF ACTIVE MCS GUST FRONT FROM WRN MARION
COUNTY SWD THROUGH ERN BUTLER AND COWLEY COUNTIES IN S-CNTRL KS.
INSPECTION OF ICT VWP INDICATES THAT REAR-INFLOW JET /LARGELY
RESULTING FROM ENHANCED FLOW AROUND SRN PERIPHERY OF MCV/ HAD
DIMINISHED TO 40-45 KTS...IN COMPARISON TO 60-65 KTS OBSERVED
EARLIER ON THE DDC VWP. NONETHELESS...RECENT ICT SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS AND SPOTTER REPORTS INDICATE THIS WIND IS CLEARLY
REACHING THE GROUND. THEREFORE...EXPECT DAMAGING WIND THREAT TO
CONTINUE ESEWD ACROSS SERN KS IN ASSOCIATION WITH ONGOING ACTIVE
CONVECTION.

FARTHER S OVER N-CNTRL OK..ABSENCE OF CONVECTION ALONG GUST FRONT
AND APPARENT GRAVITY WAVE TRAIN OBSERVED IN RADAR IMAGERY
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND GUST FRONT SUGGEST THAT CAP IS LIKELY INHIBITING
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. FARTHER SW...ADDITIONAL CLUSTER OF STORMS
HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED BEHIND GUST FRONT OVER CANADIAN...CADDO AND
GRADY COUNTIES. WHILE ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND/OR MARGINAL
HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS...IT APPEARS GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT WILL REMAIN TO THE N OVER SERN KS AND POSSIBLY INTO NERN OK
WHERE MCS COLD POOL IS BEING BETTER SUSTAINED BY ACTIVE CONVECTION
AND CHANNELED FLOW AROUND MCV.

..MEAD.. 05/24/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...ICT...OUN...

38309765 36879349 34169360 35479775 

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