[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 240031
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240030 
TXZ000-OKZ000-NMZ000-240230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0979
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0730 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NERN NM...NWRN/W-CENTRAL TX
PANHANDLE...WRN/CENTRAL OK PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 316...

VALID 240030Z - 240230Z

CLUSTER OF STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS -- LARGELY OVER SRN UNION COUNTY NM
AS OF 0015Z -- IS EXPECTED TO MOVE/PROPAGATE INTO TX
PANHANDLE...MAINTAINING POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS.


SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK/RESIDUAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING
BETWEEN WEAK LOWS NEAR GUY AND TCC.  AIR MASS N OF THAT BOUNDARY --
IN INFLOW REGION OF NERN NM CONVECTION -- IS CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK
SFC FLOW WITH PRIMARY ELY COMPONENT...ENHANCING STORM-RELATIVE
INFLOW FOR ESEWD MOVING CONVECTION.  SFC DEW POINTS MID-UPPER 50S
ACROSS NWRN TX PANHANDLE YIELD 1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE.  NRN PORTION
OF COMPLEX MAY STRENGTHEN AND MOVE EWD ACROSS OK/NRN TX PANHANDLES
-- PREFERENTIALLY BUILDING INTO RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.  BUOYANCY
INCREASES TO 2000-2500 J/KG MLCAPE RANGES FARTHER N OVER OK
PANHANDLE WHERE MODIFIED DDC RAOB AND RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE HIGHER
LOW LEVEL MIXING RATIOS.  CONVECTIVE STABILIZATION AND LOSS OF
INSOLATION-RELATED SFC HEATING INDICATE COUNTIES W AND NW OF
CONVECTION MAY BE CLEARED FROM WW ONCE ACTIVITY HAS MOVED OUTSIDE
THEIR BORDERS.

..EDWARDS.. 05/24/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AMA...ABQ...

34890405 36970397 36970104 34900118 

WWWW