[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 231813
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231812 
MDZ000-WVZ000-PAZ000-OHZ000-MIZ000-232015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0971
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0112 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/ERN OH...SCENTRAL LOWER MI...AND NRN
WV/SWRN PA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 231812Z - 232015Z

ISOLATED MARGINALLY SVR HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH CONVECTION THAT
WILL MOVE SEWD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES UNDERNEATH UPPER VORT MAX CENTERED OVER
WRN LK ERIE ALONG WITH CONTINUED WARMING TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER
60S/LOWER 70S WILL ALLOW FOR MUCAPES TO REACH 800-1000 J/KG OVER THE
AREA. AXIS OF MODERATE /30-50 KT/ MID LEVEL FLOW ON NRN SIDE OF
STRONG MID LEVEL JET MAX WILL SUPPORT SOME UPDRAFT ROTATION.
MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR LESS THAN 30 KTS SHOULD
LIMIT THE AMT OF SVR HAIL POTENTIAL...THUS PRECLUDING A WW.

..CROSBIE.. 05/23/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LWX...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...

41208187 42008410 41938476 41098475 40138372 39308217
38598061 38617976 39277936 40288090 

WWWW