[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 231908
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231908 
NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-232015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0972
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0208 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO...EXTREME NWRN KS AND WRN NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 231908Z - 232015Z

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE 
AFTERNOON WITH A WW POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO ACROSS
PORTIONS OF ERN CO...NWRN KS AND WRN NEB.

AT 19Z...COLD FRONT HAD PUSHED SEWD AND EXTENDED FROM THE NEB
PANHANDLE SWWD TO EAST OF AKO AND THEN WWD TO NEAR COS. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...DEWPOINTS IN UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S...COMBINED WITH STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WERE RESULTING IN MLCAPES FROM 1000 TO 2000
J/KG. BEHIND THE FRONT...NEWLY WINDS WERE STRENGTHENING AS THE
UPSLOPE WIND DEEPENED...RESULTING IN SURFACE BASED CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. HOWEVER...THE BOUNDARY LAYER
DEWPOINTS WERE ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S SO HIGH BASED CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT EWD OFF THE FRONT RANGE. AS THIS CONVECTION MOVES
EWD AND INTERACTS WITH SURFACE FRONT AND GREATER INSTABILITY
...EXPECT STORMS TO INTENSIFY ACROSS THE NERN CO PLAINS INTO WRN
NEB. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO
BETWEEN COS AND LIC...WHERE COLD FRONT AND HIGHER INSTABILITY IS
INTERSECTING HIGHER TERRAIN....SO WW MAY BE NEEDED BY 20Z-21Z.

..IMY.. 05/23/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...

38890497 39840395 40720323 42720240 42820170 42300030
37910208 37910276 38250427 

WWWW