[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 231754
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231753 
ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-231930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0970
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1253 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SERN OK...SWRN AR AND EXTREME NERN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 231753Z - 231930Z

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN
SERN OK AND INTO THE ARKLATEX AREA WITH A HAIL THREAT. AREA IS
BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

LATEST SATELLITE/RADAR PICTURES SHOW A MCV NEAR ADM MOVING ESEWD AT
35-40 KT THROUGH SRN OK. RECENT WIND PROFILES AT OKC AND TUL ALSO
SHOW STRONG VEERING IN THE LOWER 3 KM...WHICH SUPPORT WARM
ADVECTION/LIFT ABOVE A CAPPING INVERSION LOCATED AROUND 850 MB.
ALTHOUGH THESE STORMS APPEAR UNLIKELY TO TAP INTO THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...STEEP LAPSE RATES ABOVE THE INVERSION ARE RESULTING IN
MUCAPES UP TO 1500 J/KG. THIS INSTABILITY AND THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
ABOVE THE CAPPING INVERSION APPEAR SUFFICIENT FOR ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH A HAIL THREAT.

..IMY.. 05/23/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

34089651 35319631 35529541 35239434 34089338 33169359
33499532 

WWWW