[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 231723
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231722 
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-231915-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0969
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1222 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MS...CENTRAL/SRN AL...CENTRAL/SRN GA...FL
PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 231722Z - 231915Z

TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN DEVELOPING IN THE 19-20Z TIME FRAME
ALONG A SWD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM SERN MS ENEWD
INTO WCENTRAL GA. DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL WNWLY FLOW WILL FAVOR
CONVECTION BECOMING LINEAR WITH TIME. DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND
MODERATE WIND FIELDS SUGGEST THAT DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IF
CONVECTION CAN ORGANIZE. A WW COULD BE ISSUED IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.


SFC ANALYSIS AND VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM 30 S OF MEI TO MGM TO JUST W OF ATL. AIRMASS
DOWNSTREAM OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE WITH
MUCAPES APPROACHING 3000 J/KG WITH LITTLE CINH. ALTHOUGH LOW-MID
LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT VERY STRONG ATTM /20-25 KTS/ PER REGIONAL VWP/S
AND PROFILER DATA...THE COMBINATION OF A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND APPROACHING WIND MAX FROM MCV OVER
AR/WRN TN WILL AID IN 2-6 KM FLOW FIELDS OVER THE AREA INCREASING TO
30-40 KTS BY MID AFTERNOON. ATTM CONVERGENCE ALONG THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY IS NOT OVERLY STRONG. HOWEVER...APPROACHING MCV OVER WRN
TN/AR SHOULD AID IN SOME BACKING OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHICH WOULD ENHANCE CONVERGENCE. COMBINED WITH
LITTLE REMAINING CINH SHOULD SUPPORT STORM
DEVELOPMENT/INTENSIFICATION BEGINNING AROUND 19Z. ALTHOUGH MODERATE
TO HIGH INSTABILITY WILL EXIST...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE ONLY
6-6.5 DEG C/KM. THUS THE SVR HAIL THREAT SHOULD BE LIMITED.

..CROSBIE.. 05/23/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...

33438271 33688477 32338656 31978797 31718883 30908916
30158829 30208569 30078441 31258131 32418144 

WWWW