[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 231716
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231716 
VAZ000-NCZ000-MDZ000-SCZ000-231845-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0968
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1216 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN VA AND PORTIONS OF ERN NC/SC

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 231716Z - 231845Z

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN VA SWD
ACROSS THE ERN CAROLINAS WITH A POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS. AREA
IS BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

WEAK SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED IN SOUTH CENTRAL VA IN THE LYH AREA
WITH A LEESIDE TROUGH EXTENDING SWD FROM THE LOW NEAR A RDU-FAY-AGS
LINE. AIR MASS IS BECOMING MODERATELY UNSTABLE TO THE EAST OF THE
BOUNDARY...WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE WEST.

A 7OKT MID LEVEL JET IS ALSO PUSHING INTO THE AREA...WITH THE
STRONGEST FORCING FOR CONVECTION LOCATED ACROSS ERN VA. HOWEVER...
INSTABILITY IS STRONGER ACROSS THE ERN CAROLINAS WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE
IN THE LOWER/MID 60S. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS
WEAK...STRONGER CONVERGENCE NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF AN OLD OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY AND THE LEESIDE TROUGH...S OF FLO...IS AIDING IN CUMULUS
ENHANCEMENT. WITH THE WEAK CAP...EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO DEVELOP INTO
STORMS SHORTLY...WITH OTHERS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING ALONG AND EAST OF
THE SURFACE LOW/TROUGH LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

DEEP LAYER SHEAR AT 50-60 KT WOULD AID IN STORM ORGANIZATION. IF
STORMS DEVELOP...THE STRONG TROPOSPHERIC WINDS AND STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR A DAMAGING WIND THREAT. WEAK
CONVERGENCE MAY LIMIT COVERAGE...SO STILL SOME QUESTION WHETHER
ENOUGH COVERAGE WILL DEVELOP FOR A WW ISSUANCE.

..IMY.. 05/23/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...

33378094 34297983 35487825 36797787 38187742 38647673
37867579 36067569 34057761 32897973 32628049 

WWWW