[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 231149
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231148 
ARZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-231315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0967
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0648 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN OK SEWD THROUGH CNTRL AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 313...

VALID 231148Z - 231315Z

THOUGH OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING
ACROSS WW AREA...POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL WILL EXIST WITH ELEVATED
TSTMS DEVELOPING ATOP MCS COLD POOL.

REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC AND CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT
LEADING EDGE OF COLD POOL HAS PUSHED WELL TO THE S OF PARENT MCS
RESULTING IN AN OVERALL WEAKENING OF SYSTEM OVER THE PAST HOUR OR
SO. SOME HIGHER REFLECTIVITY CORES HAVE PERSISTED ON NWRN FLANK OF
MCS /OVER NERN OK INTO FAR SERN KS/ WHERE WSWLY LLJ IS MAINTAINING
STRONG LOW-LEVEL ASCENT ATOP COLD POOL. POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LARGE
HAIL WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITHIN THIS SAME
REGIME...HOWEVER LOW-LEVEL FORCING SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN AFTER 13 OR
14Z WITH DIURNAL WEAKENING OF LLJ.

CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED AND WW 313 MAY EVENTUALLY BE
CANCELLED IF TSTMS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN.

..MEAD.. 05/23/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...

37469663 35419090 33319098 35459670 

WWWW