[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 230731
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 230731 
ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-230830-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0965
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0231 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN KS/NERN OK/SWRN MO/NWRN AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 312...

VALID 230731Z - 230830Z

DAMAGING WIND THREAT APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS NERN OK AND
NWRN AR. A REPLACEMENT WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED WITHIN THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO.

REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT EVOLVING MCS HAS STARTED TO
FORWARD-PROPAGATE ALONG ORGANIZING COLD POOL FROM NOWATA COUNTY OK
INTO BENTON COUNTY AR WITH A SSEWD MOTION OF 35-40 KTS. RUC
MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THAT DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS ACROSS E-CNTRL OK
INTO W-CNTRL AR REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
MUCAPES OF 2000-3000 KT. GIVEN THIS INSTABILITY AND ENHANCED
LOW-LEVEL STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW OWING TO INCREASED SYSTEM
MOTION...EXPECT MCS AND INHERENT DAMAGING WIND THREAT TO DEVELOP SWD
INTO FAR E-CNTRL OK AND W-CNTRL/CNTRL AR BY 10-11Z.

MEANWHILE...WRN EXTENSION OF MCS REMAINS ANCHORED NEAR ICT AS A
RESULT OF SUBSEQUENT BACKBUILDING DEVELOPMENT WITH LARGE HAIL BEING
THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. COLD POOL INTENSIFICATION COUPLED
WITH VEERING LLJ MAY SUPPORT MORE FORWARD PROPAGATION AND INCREASING
WIND THREAT INTO PORTIONS OF N-CNTRL OK OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

..MEAD.. 05/23/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...

38709846 37099235 35009233 36549851 

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