[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 230634
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 230634 
TXZ000-OKZ000-230730-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0964
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0134 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CNTRL TX PNHDL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 230634Z - 230730Z

POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL WILL EXIST WITH ONGOING STORMS...HOWEVER
OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED AND NO WW IS
ANTICIPATED.

REMNANTS OF DIURNAL TSTMS ORIGINATING OVER THE RATON MESA SUNDAY
EVENING HAVE RECENTLY INTENSIFIED OVER THE NWRN TX PNHDL WITH
QUARTER-SIZED HAIL RECENTLY REPORTED WITH SRN-MOST CELL NEAR
HARTLEY. LATEST MESOANALYSIS AND LOCAL PROFILERS/VWPS SUGGEST THAT
THESE STORMS ARE NEAR SURFACE-850 MB BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE LIKELY BEING ENHANCED BY 30 KT LLJ IN PLACE OVER WRN TX
INTO THE PNHDL. PROXIMITY FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT LOW-LEVEL
AIR MASS IS RELATIVELY WARM AND DRY ABOVE NEAR SURFACE
INVERSION...THOUGH PRESENCE OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IS
RESULTING IN MUCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG FOR PARCELS LIFTED FROM 1.5-2
KM AGL.

ONGOING STORMS WILL REMAIN CABLE OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL...THOUGH IT
APPEARS THAT THE MARGINAL DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND RELATIVELY DRY
SUB-CLOUD LAYER SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

..MEAD.. 05/23/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AMA...

35930240 36360219 36540168 36570063 36140022 35720015
35230073 35120138 35250216 

WWWW