[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 230436
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 230435 
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-230630-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0963
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1135 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS S-CENTRAL/SERN KS...N-CENTRAL/NERN
OK...NWRN-CENTRAL AR...SWRN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 312...

VALID 230435Z - 230630Z

CONTINUE WW. RAPID DEVELOPMENT/EXPANSION OF TSTMS CONTINUES OVER
S-CENTRAL/SERN KS WITH ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO SHIFT ACROSS OK BORDER
AFTER MIDNIGHT LOCAL TIME...5Z ONWARD. SEVERE HAIL HAS OCCURRED
AND...WITH FAVORABLE ELEVATED BUOYANCY AND SHEAR...WILL CONTINUE
WITH TSTM COMPLEX OVER SERN KS.  HEAVY PRECIP SUPERCELL RIGHT-MOVING
SSEWD ACROSS ELK COUNTY KS ATTM...TOWARD CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY...WITH
OTHER STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS WNWWD ACROSS COWLEY/BUTLER COUNTIES. UP
TO 2.75 INCH HAIL REPORTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY WITHIN PAST HALF HOUR.


VERY LARGE/DESTRUCTIVE HAIL REMAINS POSSIBLE WITH THIS COMPLEX AS IT
MOVES GENERALLY SSEWD ACROSS REMAINDER KS/OK BORDER REGION FROM
COWLEY KS AND OSAGE OK COUNTIES EWD OVER NEXT 3-4 HOURS. 
REFLECTIVITY AND IR IMAGERY INDICATES COMPLEX BACKBUILDING AS FAR W
AS HUT...KEEPING POSSIBILITY OPEN OF SEVERE HAIL OVER ICT AREA. 
CONVECTION ALSO SHOULD CONTINUE INCREASING ON COVERAGE/INTENSITY
OVER SWRN MO/NWRN AR.  MODIFIED RUC FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE AT LEAST
3000 J/KG ELEVATED MUCAPES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH AT LEAST 6Z
ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN PORTION KS/OK BORDER REGION...WHERE EFFECTIVE
SHEARS USING MU PARCELS WILL REMAIN IN 40-50 KT RANGE.

..EDWARDS.. 05/23/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...

36579845 38629844 37049247 35039249 

WWWW