[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 230234
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 230233 
ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-230430-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0962
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0933 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/SERN KS...NERN OK...EXTREME SWRN
MO...NWRN-CENTRAL AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 230233Z - 230430Z

REGIME OF ELEVATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALREADY UNDERWAY NWRN AR SHOULD
EXTEND INTO PORTIONS NERN OK AND CENTRAL/SERN KS THROUGH AT LEAST
6Z...WITH POTENTIAL FOR MOST INTENSE CELLS TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL. 
AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW.

IR CLOUD TOP TEMPS ARE COOLING ACROSS MOST OF THIS REGION ATTM.
SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS QUASISTATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS SRN MO
OZARKS WWD ALONG NRN TIER OK COUNTIES...THEN SWWD OVER TX PANHANDLE.
 OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER AR MCS EXTENDS FROM NEAR HOT NWWD TO
JUST E TUL...INTERSECTING FRONT THERE. CONTINUED DIABATIC COOLING
OF BOUNDARY LAYER -- NE OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND N OF SFC FRONT --
SHOULD DECOUPLE BOUNDARY LAYER FURTHER...THOUGH LAPSE RATES JUST
ABOVE SFC ARE NOT TOO STABLE TO PROHIBIT STRONG/POSSIBLY SEVERE
GUSTS FROM PENETRATING TO SFC AS WELL.
MODIFIED LMN/SGF RAOBS...AS WELL AS RUC FCST SOUNDINGS...INDICATE
STEEP 7-8 DEG C/KM MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ROUGHLY 150 MB
TROPOPAUSE LEVELS OVER THIS AREA.  WHEN COMBINED WITH 13-14 DEG C
850 MB DEW POINTS...SUPPORT VERY DEEP BUOYANCY PROFILE WITH ELEVATED
MUCAPES AROUND 3000 J/KG.  WEAK HEIGHT FALLS NOTED ON 500 MB CHART
OVER SERN CO/SWRN KS APPEAR TIED TO WEAK PERTURBATIONS EVIDENT IN
PROFILER AND MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER SWRN KS AND CENTRAL/SRN
CO...INDICATING SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IN LARGE SCALE UVV OVER
DISCUSSION AREA OVER NEXT FEW HOURS AS WELL.

..EDWARDS.. 05/23/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...

36939716 37279740 37669746 38299724 37939506 37349408
35599182 34739251 35919529 36419654 

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