[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 222229
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222229 
KSZ000-OKZ000-230000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0961
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0529 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NRN OK...EXTREME SRN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 222229Z - 230000Z

AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR POTENTIALLY RAPID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
AND POSSIBLE WW.  ANY TSTMS WHICH DO FORM SHOULD GROW RAPIDLY AND
BECOME SEVERE...WITH VERY LARGE/DAMAGING HAIL AND SEVERE GUSTS
POSSIBLE.

SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS QUASISTATIONARY FRONT ALONG A LINE FROM
BVO-PNC WWD ACROSS CENTRAL GRANT/ALFALFA COUNTIES NWD TO NERN
WOODWARD COUNTY.  THIS BOUNDARY HAS SHOWN SOME NWD DRIFT THROUGH
AFTERNOON...BUT HAS STALLED AND SHOULD REMAIN JUST S OF KS BORDER
FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS.  MESONET DATA...AND CLEAR-AIR
MODE REFLECTIVITY ANIMATIONS FROM VANCE AFB UNIT...INDICATE MESOBETA
SCALE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY S OF FRONT -- DRIFTING NWD ACROSS
MAJOR/GARFIELD/NOBLE/PAWNEE COUNTIES.  SEVERAL MISOSCALE
CIRCULATIONS AND CLUMPS OF DEEP CU/TCU ARE EVIDENT ALONG THAT
BOUNDARY...INDICATING LOCALLY FOCUSED CONVERGENCE/LIFT.  VIS IMAGERY
ALSO INDICATES MORE HOMOGENEOUS SHALLOW CONVECTION IN EXTENSIVE
FIELD OVER SRN KS...ROUGHLY BETWEEN 25-75 NM N OF FRONT.  GLACIATING
TCU ALSO IS EVIDENT OVER NWRN OSAGE COUNTY ALONG FRONT...AND OTHER
DEEP CU/TCU ARE SEEN ON SRN BOUNDARY OVER PAWNEE COUNTY.

AIR MASS WITHIN FRONTAL ZONE IS WELL SAMPLED BY VWP/PROFILER
DATA...WITH VERTICAL SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS.  MODIFIED 18Z
LMN RAOB AND RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE 2500-3500 J/KG MLCAPE AND ALMOST
NO CINH.  WEAK/BACKED SFC WINDS IN THIS AREA CONTRIBUTE TO ENLARGED
HODOGRAPHS WITH 0-1 KM SRH 250-350 J/KG FOR ESEWD STORM MOTION. 
STRONG VEERING BUT WITH SPEED WEAKNESSES IN MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW
INDICATE QUICK EVOLUTION TO HEAVY-PRECIP AND PERHAPS OUTFLOW
DOMINANT MODES FOR ANY DISCRETE STORMS.  POTENTIAL FOR BOW
DEVELOPMENT EXISTS ALSO.

..EDWARDS.. 05/22/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...

36259729 36219838 36189901 36229937 36529977 36849981
37129971 37349940 37459879 37499790 37499672 37279560
36989549 36579563 36319616 36259680 

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