[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 222056
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222056 
NMZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-222300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0960
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0356 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...FRONT RANGE OF FAR SERN WY...ERN CO AND NERN NM

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 222056Z - 222300Z

ISOLATED SVR STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE FOOTHILLS AND FRONT RANGE
DURING THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM.

LATEST VIS IMAGERY SHOWS MDT-TOWERING CU ALONG THE FOOTHILLS OF THE
SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS OF NERN NM...AND NRN FOOTHILLS OF THE ROCKIES
IN CO/FAR SERN WY.  LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE REMAINS MODEST INTO THE
REGION...WITH SSELY FLOW OVER MUCH OF NERN CO...AND SLIGHTLY MORE
BACKED SELY FLOW IN SERN CO/NERN NM. SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT A
LEE LOW /DENVER CYCLONE/ WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE CONVERGENCE AND STORM
DEVELOPMENT LOCALLY IN THIS AREA. RECENT OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS
THAT MLCINH HAS WEAKENED TO AROUND 50 J/KG. ANOTHER 1-2 HOURS OF
HEATING COMBINED WITH WEAK UPSLOPE/CONVERGENCE MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR
AT LEAST ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT. INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL
/MLCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG/...BUT 30-40 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR
COMBINED WITH THIS INSTABILITY SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST SOME
SVR THREAT WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

..CROSBIE.. 05/22/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...CYS...ABQ...

41250441 41490493 41320580 40790572 40050556 39460544
38930542 37960542 37200516 36770512 36500502 36390491
36270443 36780392 39030421 

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