[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 221914
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221913 
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-222115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0959
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0213 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN KS...SRN MO...NERN OK...SWRN AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 221913Z - 222115Z

PORTIONS OF EXTREME SERN KS...NERN OK...SWRN MO...AND NWRN AR ARE
BEING MONITORED FOR INCREASING SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED OVER PARTS OF THE
REGION WITHIN ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO.

DECAYING FRONTAL ZONE WAS ROUGHLY SITUATED ALONG A STL-SGF-BVO-P28
LINE WITH RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERSECTING THE FRONTAL ZONE
OVER NERN OK/NWRN AR AND THEN EXTENDING SWD ALONG THE OK/AR BORDER.
THIS BOUNDARY IS ACTING AS A WARM FRONT ACROSS NERN OK/NWRN AR AS
SFC TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE 90S ACROSS CNTRL AND NRN OK BENEATH
STRONG CAP...BUT REMAIN IN THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE OZARKS. EXPECT
ONGOING CONVECTION NEAR FRONT/OUTFLOW INTERSECTION TO POSSIBLY ROOT
INTO THE INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO. STORMS MAY ALSO INITIATE ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE FROM
EXTREME SERN KS INTO SRN MO AS BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO HEAT IN
THIS REGION WHERE THE CAP IS LIKELY TO BE WEAKER. ADDITIONAL
ACTIVITY...PERHAPS MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE... MAY BE ABLE TO
INITIATE NEAR THE FRONT ACROSS SRN KS/NRN OK LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS
TEMPERATURES CLIMB OVER 100F NEAR THE FRONTAL CIRCULATION.
OR...ACTIVITY FARTHER EAST MAY BACKBUILD INTO THE STRONGER
INSTABILITY THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. EFFECTIVE
SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND MAGNITUDE OF
INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR LARGE HAIL AND
HIGH WINDS. DISCRETE CELLS NEAR OR ON BOUNDARIES WILL HAVE A LOW
PROBABILITY THREAT OF PRODUCING A TORNADO IN AREAS WHERE THE LFC IS
LOCALLY LOWER AND SHEAR IS GREATER.

..CARBIN.. 05/22/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...

35559414 35669516 35919606 36939895 37279890 37649498
37829407 37909241 37419185 36879204 35909249 

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