[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 220556
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220556 
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-220700-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0958
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1256 AM CDT SUN MAY 22 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN/S-CNTRL IA INTO CNTRL MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 220556Z - 220700Z

POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL WILL EXIST WITH BAND OF ELEVATED TSTMS.
CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE.

AS OF 0543Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A NW-SE ORIENTED BAND OF
ELEVATED TSTMS INTENSIFYING FROM APPROXIMATELY 40 W OF LWD TO 40 NE
COU. SYNTHESIS OF CURRENT MESOANALYSIS AND PLAN VIEW PROFILER/VWP
NETWORK SUGGEST THAT THESE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING N OF WARM
FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COMPOSITE AND ALONG THE NOSE OF A 30-40 KT
SWLY LLJ WHERE MOIST/THERMAL ADVECTIONS ARE BEING MAXIMIZED. RUC
PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS AND DIAGNOSTIC FIELDS INDICATE THAT LOCAL AIR
MASS IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE FOR PARCELS BASED AROUND 1-1.5 KM AGL
WITH PRIMARY INSTABILITY AXIS /I.E. MUCAPES OF 2000-2500 J/KG/
EXTENDING FROM CNTRL OK/S-CNTRL KS NEWD INTO NWRN MO AND SWRN IA.

GIVEN EFFECTIVE BULK SHEARS OF 35-40 KTS...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR
A FEW ORGANIZED/ROTATING UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF MAINLY LARGE HAIL.

..MEAD.. 05/22/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...SGF...DMX...EAX...OAX...

40259542 41189497 41529383 40549226 38939146 38169235
38139368 39329505 

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