[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 220129
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220128 
ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-220330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0957
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0828 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...IA...MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 220128Z - 220330Z

TSTMS MAY CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND BECOME SEVERE ACROSS PARTS OF IA
AND MO IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ASCENT DRIVEN BY INCREASING NOCTURNAL LOW
LEVEL JET...AND POSSIBLY SUPPORTED BY WEAK IMPULSE CRESTING THE MID
LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS NEB...SHOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN DEEP
CONVECTION ACROSS IA AND MO TONIGHT. LATEST RADAR LOOP WAS SHOWING
AN INCREASE IN WIDELY SCATTERED WEAK-REFLECTIVITY STORMS IN AN ARC
FROM SERN IA INTO NRN MO. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE INITIATING
NEAR 850-700MB FRONTAL SURFACE...ON THE ERN EDGE OF STRONG CNTRL
PLAINS CAPPING INVERSION. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES CHARACTERISTIC
OF UPSTREAM ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR ARE LIKELY SPREADING EWD ACROSS
THE REGION. THESE LAPSE RATES...COUPLED WITH LOW THROUGH MID LEVEL
ASCENT/MOISTENING ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET...SHOULD ALLOW
ADDITIONAL STORMS TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
LATEST POINT FCST SOUNDINGS APPEAR TO SUGGEST THAT EFFECTIVE SHEAR
IN THE UPDRAFT LAYER IS MARGINAL FOR STORM ROTATION.
HOWEVER...STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW IS FCST TO MOVE OVER THE REGION IN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND...WHEN COUPLED WITH MUCAPE VALUES APPROACHING
1000 J/KG...ENVIRONMENT COULD EASILY SUPPORT HAIL.

..CARBIN.. 05/22/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...

39049239 39029402 40049503 41099526 41759508 40979153
40139133 

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