[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 220027
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220026 
IAZ000-KSZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-220200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0956
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0726 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN SD...ERN NEB ...WRN IA...NERN KS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 311...

VALID 220026Z - 220200Z

VERY UNSTABLE AND HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT REMAINS STRONGLY CAPPED
TO SFC-BASED CONVECTION OVER THE BULK OF TORNADO WATCH 311 THIS
EVENING. EARLIER ATTEMPTS AT STORM INITIATION NEAR FRONT BOUNDARY
INTERSECTION OVER EXTREME SERN NEB HAVE FAILED AS CELLS DRIFTED SEWD
OFF THE BOUNDARY AND DECAYED OVER NERN KS. ANOTHER UPDRAFT APPEARED
TO COINCIDE WITH COLD FRONT/REMNANT OUTFLOW INTERSECTION ACROSS SERN
SD. THIS CELL HAS ALSO WEAKENED/DIMINISHED. HOWEVER... ADDITIONAL
ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING NEAR THE FRONT IN EXTREME SERN SD
WHERE CAP MAY BE WEAKEST.

CLEARLY...CAP IS SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION DESPITE ALMOST ALL
SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTING OTHERWISE. OMA/TOP RAOBS INDICATED
NEARLY 200 J/KG MLCIN AND WITH DIURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING NOW
SETTING IN...PROSPECTS FOR WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT APPEAR TO BE
DIMINISHING. NONETHELESS...ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE SRN PORTIONS OF
THE WATCH REMAINS VERY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. EVEN ONE STORM IN
THIS ENVIRONMENT COULD QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE. THUS...WATCH WILL BE
MAINTAINED ACROSS THE REGION FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER COUPLE MORE HOURS.

..CARBIN.. 05/22/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP...GID...

39159550 39089788 43169723 43139478 

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