[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 212330
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212329 
KSZ000-220100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0955
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0629 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 212329Z - 220100Z

TCU AND CB HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD ACROSS CNTRL
KS THIS EVENING. A SMALL SEVERE TSTM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST OF THESE STORMS IF THE ACTIVITY PERSISTS OR
INCREASES.

RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST FRONTAL AND DRYLINE CIRCULATIONS
ACROSS CNTRL KS...COUPLED WITH DIURNAL MAXIMUM IN BOUNDARY LAYER
HEATING...HAVE BEEN SUFFICIENT TO LOCALLY BREACH STRONG CAP AND
RESULT IN STORM INITIATION OVER LINCOLN AND RUSSELL COUNTIES IN
NCNTRL KS. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE WSWWD FROM
FRONT/DRYLINE INTERSECTION OVER THE NEXT HOUR ALTHOUGH STRENGTH OF
INHIBITION LENDS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER THIS
CONVECTION CAN PERSIST.

DESPITE RELATIVELY WARM AIR AT MID LEVELS...HOT AND DEEPLY MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER AND FRONTAL FORCING COULD EITHER 1) PROMOTE
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OR...2) SUSTAIN ISOLATED ONGOING STORMS
MOVING EAST TOWARD GREATER INSTABILITY WITHIN LOW LEVEL MOIST AXIS.
EFFECTIVE SHEAR ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR AND FRONTAL ZONE WILL SUPPORT
SUPERCELL STRUCTURE IF UPDRAFTS CAN TAP THIS GREATER INSTABILITY.
INITIALLY...SEVERE HAZARD WILL PROBABLY BE ISOLATED STRONG
DOWNDRAFTS/OUTFLOW GIVEN HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS.
IF MORE PERSISTENT/STOUT CELLS TAKE SHAPE...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED
TORNADO THREAT COULD ENSUE...AND A WATCH WOULD BE LIKELY.

..CARBIN.. 05/21/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...

38909787 38839655 39009643 39029553 37959581 38059803
37999973 38259972 38529982 38649966 39389793 

WWWW