[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 212051
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212050 
NDZ000-212245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0953
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0350 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN ND

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 212050Z - 212245Z

ISOLATED MARGINALLY SVR HAIL/WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN DEEPLY MIXED POST FRONTAL AIRMASS OVER NRN
ND. WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

CONVECTION WAS INCREASING OVER NWRN ND AHEAD OF A PRONOUNCED VORT
LOBE EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY. DESPITE THE AREA BEING BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT OVER ERN ND...A NARROW AXIS OF DEWPTS NEAR 50 DEGREES RESIDED
OVER NRN ND. COMBINED WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THIS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO MUCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG. THUS THREAT FOR MARGINALLY
SVR HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS CONVECTION. IN ADDITION...STRONG LOW
LEVEL WIND FIELDS /50 KTS AT 2 KM ON THE VWP FROM MINOT/ WILL
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SVR WIND GUSTS AS MOMENTUM
TRANSFER OCCURS WITH STRONGEST DOWNDRAFTS.

..CROSBIE.. 05/21/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

49070207 48560260 48290233 48200109 48229932 48269848
48489797 48799759 48959823 49000072