[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 212039
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212039 
KSZ000-COZ000-212215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0952
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0339 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 212039Z - 212215Z

ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH CONVECTION THAT
SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY WHILE MOVING SEWD OVER WRN KS AHEAD OF
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. 

20Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM JUST
SOUTH OF HLC TO 50 WNW OF GCK TO 20 NORTH OF LAA. TEMPERATURES
DOWNSTREAM OF THIS BOUNDARY HAVE WARMED TO NEAR 100 DEGREES. DEWPTS
HAVE REMAINED NEAR 50. THIS HAS PROVIDED FOR MLCAPE VALUES FROM
800-1000 J/KG BASED ON MODIFIED 19Z RUC SOUNDINGS. ANY STORMS THAT
DO FORM MAY POSE A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON AS THEY MOVE SLOWLY SEWD AROUND 15 KTS. OVERALL
ISOLATED COVERAGE AND MARGINAL NATURE OF THREAT EXPECTED SUGGESTS
THAT A WW IS NOT LIKELY.

..CROSBIE.. 05/21/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...PUB...

39419966 38840087 38410171 37890208 37470201 37220169
37250062 37539964 38189884 39309909