[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 211825
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211824 
MNZ000-NDZ000-211930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0950
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0124 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ND INTO NWRN AND WEST CENTRAL MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 211824Z - 211930Z

WW BEING CONSIDERED FOR ERN ND INTO MUCH OF NWRN AND WEST CENTRAL MN
IN THE NEXT HOUR.

VIS IMAGERY INDICATED LINE OF CU DEVELOPING ALONG A COLD FRONT OVER
ERN ND /EAST OF A DVL-JMS LINE/ INTO ERN SD NEAR ABR TO WNW MHE. 
STRONGER FORCING WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY AIDING
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SERN SASKATCHEWAN/SWRN MANITOBA. 
DESPITE A CONTINUED INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE... ALBEIT A NARROW
AXIS ALONG/E FRONT...CLOUDINESS OVER ERN ND/NWRN MN WILL FURTHER
SLOW SURFACE BASED DESTABILIZATION.  MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS ALONG
THE ERN ND/MN BORDER SUGGEST MUCAPE VALUES NEAR 500 J/KG.

INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT OVER THE AREA OF CONCERN AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES EWD ACROSS SRN CANADA/ND THIS AFTERNOON COMBINED WITH
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT BY 20-21Z AS IT REACHES FAR ERN ND. 
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR ORGANIZED STORMS.  STRONG
FORCING AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY SUGGEST STORMS SHOULD REMAIN MORE
IN A LINE VERSUS BECOMING DISCRETE... DESPITE SHEAR VECTORS ORIENTED
PERPENDICULAR TO THE BOUNDARY.

..PETERS.. 05/21/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS...

47989772 49009797 49009575 46619501 45979504 45969627
45969809 

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