[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 211944
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211944 
MOZ000-NEZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-212045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0951
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0244 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NB

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 211944Z - 212045Z

WW WILL BE ISSUED SOON FOR ERN NEB.

VIS IMAGERY SHOWED CU DEVELOPING OVER ERN NEB /AROUND AND S OF OFK/
WHERE STRONG SURFACE HEATING IS AIDING IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
ALONG AND EAST OF THE COLD FRONT...AND WEST OF A SURFACE TROUGH OVER
FAR ERN NEB.  CAPPING INVERSION REMAINED OVER FAR ERN NEB PER OMAHA
18Z SOUNDING.  HOWEVER...THIS SOUNDING MODIFIED FOR WARM SECTOR
SURFACE HEATING AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S SUGGESTED THE
CAP HAS BECOME VERY WEAK.  ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING INTO THE MID
90S AND INCREASING ASCENT AS THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES ESEWD IS
EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT TO FURTHER WEAKEN THE CAP FOR SURFACE
BASED STORMS.  40-50 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS 
WITHIN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS /MLCAPE 1000-1500 J/KG/.

..PETERS.. 05/21/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...FSD...OAX...GID...

40439792 41919815 42809818 42499650 40099555 40169786 

WWWW