[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 211243
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211243 
MNZ000-NDZ000-211345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0949
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0743 AM CDT SAT MAY 21 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ND INTO NWRN MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 309...

VALID 211243Z - 211345Z

THROUGH 14Z...MAINLY AN ISOLATED HAIL THREAT WILL PERSIST OVER ERN
ND INTO NWRN MN. ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL APPEARS TO HAVE
DIMINISHED AND WW 309 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 14Z.

VERY STRONG CAP OBSERVED ON 12Z ABR SOUNDING HAS EFFECTIVELY REDUCED
ENVIRONMENTAL CAPE AND INHIBITED SURFACE-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS WW AREA. ELEVATED TSTMS CONTINUE TO PERSIST AHEAD OF MCV
WHERE REGION OF ENHANCED MESOSCALE ASCENT HAS ALLOWED PARCELS TO
REACH THE LFC WITH LIMITED BUOYANCY. POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LARGE
HAIL WILL EXIST WITH THESE STORMS AS THEY SHIFT EWD ACROSS RED RIVER
INTO NWRN MN...THOUGH CONSIDERABLE MELTING WILL LIKELY OCCUR WITHIN
WARM CAP LAYER.

..MEAD.. 05/21/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

48309913 48899562 46549568 46009845 

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