[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 202149
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202149 
WYZ000-IDZ000-MTZ000-202345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0936
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0449 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SCENTRAL/SERN ID

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 202149Z - 202345Z

ISOLATED SVR TSTMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SFC FRONT ACROSS SCENTRAL/SERN ID. ADDITIONAL ISO
SVR STORMS MAY DEVELOP AS STRONG UPSLOPE OCCURS ON THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SERN ID. OVERALL THREAT APPEARS TO BE MARGINAL ENOUGH
THAT A WW WILL LIKELY NOT BE NEEDED. 

CONVECTION CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE OVER SWRN ID AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AS EVIDENT BY PRESSURE RISES/COOLING
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S AT BOI WILL SUPPORT FORWARD PROPAGATION OF
CONVECTIVE LINE THROUGH THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY OF SCENTRAL/SERN ID
OVER THE NEXT 3-5 HOURS. AIRMASS OVER THE AREA IS MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE WITH MUCAPES FROM 500-1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...STRENGTH OF
FORCING/SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST A MARGINAL SVR HAIL/WIND
THREAT. ADDITIONAL STRONG/ISO SVR STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER SERN ID
AS MODERATE SWLY FLOW AIDS IN ENHANCING OROGRAPHIC LIFT INTO THE
MTNS OF SERN ID.

..CROSBIE.. 05/20/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RIW...TFX...SLC...PIH...MSO...BOI...

43421447 43141499 42611555 42251539 42041532 42061309
42161133 43021084 43911112 44401170 44361320