[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 202151
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202151 
MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-202345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0937
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0451 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AR...CNTRL MS...NRN LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 202151Z - 202345Z

ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT COULD PRODUCE
STRONG WINDS AND HAIL ACROSS PARTS OF SRN AR/CNTRL MS AND PERHAPS
NERN LA THIS EVENING. AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR AN INCREASE IN
STORM COVERAGE/ORGANIZATION AND A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED OVER PORTIONS
OF THE AREA.

ISOLATED STORMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT OVER
NRN AR AND NRN MS. AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE ONGOING STORMS WAS VERY HOT
AND STRONGLY UNSTABLE. DESPITE STRONG INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR ASCENT AND SHEAR BENEATH BROADLY DIFFLUENT AND NLY
30-40KT MID LEVEL FLOW...RECENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THAT ACTIVITY
IS STRUGGLING TO ORGANIZE. THIS IS PERHAPS DUE TO DEEP LAYER OF DRY
AIR AND MID TO UPPER LEVEL WARMING/SUBSIDENCE EVIDENT IN BOTH WV
IMAGERY AND MODEL SOUNDINGS.

A WATCH IS POSSIBLE IF STORM COVERAGE INCREASES AND RESULTS IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A COLD POOL THAT MIGHT SUSTAIN A MORE ORGANIZED
CLUSTER OF STORMS INTO THE EVENING. THIS SCENARIO IS MOST LIKELY
ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF WATCH 302...ACROSS CNTRL AND SRN MS. LATEST
SHORT-TERM MODELS WOULD SUGGEST ANOTHER WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IN THIS
AREA WITHIN 1-2 HOURS.

..CARBIN.. 05/20/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

33918990 33418946 32048933 32009190 32749332 33529333
34529286 34279184 

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