[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 191815
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191815 
OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-192015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0912
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0115 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...IND...OH...ERN KY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 191815Z - 192015Z

SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE INCREASING OVER PORTIONS OF WRN
IND...NERN KY AND SRN OH. A NEW WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR THESE AREAS
IF ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN.

PERSISTENT UPDRAFT ACROSS PARKE COUNTY IN WCNTRL IND HAS BEEN
ANCHORED ALONG STRONG WARM FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. WITH STRONG
INSTABILITY BUILDING TO THE WEST OF THIS AREA AS INDICATED ON 18Z
ILX RAOB...STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY ALONG THE WARM FRONT
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASING MID LEVEL FLOW AND ASCENT WITHIN
EXIT REGION OF MID LEVEL JET STREAK  WILL SUPPORT INTENSIFYING DEEP
LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION. LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND SEWD PROPAGATION
OF CELLS ALONG THE WARM FRONT MAY FURTHER SUPPORT STORM
ROTATION/PERSISTENCE.

ADDITIONAL STORMS HAVE RECENTLY INCREASED ON AND NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY OVER NERN KY AND SWRN OH. WHILE THIS CONVECTION IS FARTHER
REMOVED FROM FEED OF STRONG INSTABILITY...DIURNAL TRENDS
WOULD SUPPORT A GRADUAL INCREASE IN INTENSITY.

THE AREA ON AND NORTH OF THE OH RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED
FOR A WATCH IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

..CARBIN.. 05/19/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...LOT...

38238284 38598514 38648739 39388746 39788742 40638742
40208546 39898334 39388231 38538255 

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