[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 191742
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191741 
ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-191945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0911
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1241 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN IA...SRN WI...NRN IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 191741Z - 191945Z

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN IA...SOUTHERN WI...AND NORTHERN IL. 
WW MAY BE NEEDED.

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW JUST EAST OF MSP...WITH SERIES
OF BOUNDARIES ARCING ACROSS PARTS OF IA/IL/WI INTO LOW.  ONE
BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NEAR FRM TO ALO...THEN CURVING NORTHWARD INTO
SOUTHWEST WI.  AN INCREASING CU FIELD ALONG THIS BOUNDARY SUGGESTS
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR SOON. AIR MASS OVER THIS REGION IS
RELATIVELY MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 60F AND
MLCAPE VALUES OF OVER 1000 J/KG.  STRONG DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR
IS IN PLACE...ALONG WITH LOCALLY BACKED SURFACE WINDS OVER NORTHERN
IL.  THESE FACTORS MAY AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED
SEVERE/SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS.  IF LOW LEVEL WINDS CAN REMAIN
BACKED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...ISOLATED TORNADOES WOULD ALSO BE
POSSIBLE INVOF BOUNDARIES.  OTHERWISE...LARGE HAIL IS LIKELY THE
MAIN THREAT.  AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW.

..HART.. 05/19/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX...

42349126 43518960 43388836 42558784 41608790 41048886
40899005 40869123 41539181 

WWWW