[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 191844
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191844 
VAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-192015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0913
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0144 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/CNTRL PORTIONS OF VA/NC/SC INTO NE GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 191844Z - 192015Z

TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE AND SPREAD E/SE THROUGH THE PIEDMONT
REGION OF VA/NC/SC...WITH THREAT FOR ISOLD SEVERE WIND/HAIL
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. SEVERE WATCH NOT ANTICIPATED.

VIS IMAGERY/VOLUMETRIC RADAR DATA DEPICTS TSTM CLUSTERS EVOLVING
E/SE INVOF OF HIGHER TERRAIN IN LEE OF APPALACHIANS...WITH
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE PIEDMONT CORRIDOR. WITH DOWNSTREAM
AIRMASS HAVING ALREADY WARMED IN THE LOWER 80S...MODERATE
INSTABILITY EXISTS WITH SBCAPES IN EXCESS OF 1000-1500 J/KG. RUC
POINT SOUNDINGS/LOCAL VADS SUGGEST 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR RANGING FROM
AROUND 30 KTS ACROSS VA...DIMINISHING TO 20-25 KTS INTO NC/SC. IN
ADDITION TO ISOLD LARGE HAIL THREAT GIVEN INSTABILITY...STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES/WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
STRONG WIND GUST POTENTIAL. EXPECTED LIMITED ORGANIZATION/MARGINAL
NATURE OF THREAT WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE SEVERE WATCH ISSUANCE.

..GUYER.. 05/19/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...GSP...FFC...

37647986 37257814 34847917 33348133 33288284 34488323
35058249 36168085 

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