[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 191545
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191544 
KYZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-191815-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0910
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1044 AM CDT THU MAY 19 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MO/IL/IND...NRN AR...WRN KY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 191544Z - 191815Z

TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SRN/SERN MO...NRN AR...SRN
IL/IND AND WRN KY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SEVERE THREAT IN THE FORM
OF HAIL AND HIGH WINDS SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND A
WATCH MAY BE NEEDED.

INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY CAPPED WARM SECTOR WILL YIELD TO
SFC-BASED TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS SFC HEATING
EFFECTIVELY ELIMINATES INHIBITION. FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT
SHOULD BE NEAR/ALONG A WEAKLY CONVERGENT LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING FROM NRN AR/SRN MO...NEWD TO SCNTRL IL. THIS BOUNDARY
INTERSECTS AN OUTFLOW/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY OVER SERN IL AND
THE OUTFLOW/WARM FRONT EXTENDS EWD FROM THIS AREA ACROSS SRN OH.
THESE BOUNDARIES WILL FURTHER SERVE TO FOCUS STORM DEVELOPMENT INTO
THE AFTERNOON.

STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7 C/KM ATOP MOISTENING
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL CONTRIBUTE TO RELATIVELY HIGH MLCAPE VALUES
REACHING 1500-2000 J/KG BY AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES OF
20-25 KT ARE CURRENTLY UNSUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS...AND WOULD
SUGGEST INITIAL ACTIVITY MAY STRUGGLE TO ORGANIZE. HOWEVER...FCST
SOUNDINGS APPEAR TO SUGGEST A GRADUAL INCREASE IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR
AS MID LEVEL JET STREAK...CURRENTLY ACROSS IA/NRN IL...SPREADS SEWD
TOWARD THE MO BOOTHEEL AND LWR OH VLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF CAPE AS WELL AS INCREASING STORM COVERAGE AND
SHEAR...A WATCH OR WATCHES WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE REGION
BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

..CARBIN.. 05/19/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...

38259102 39008903 39938481 38688419 36778578 36798817
36548932 35759424 37219367 

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