[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 191158
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191158 
INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-191330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0909
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0658 AM CDT THU MAY 19 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/SRN IL AND W-CENTRAL/SWRN IND

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 191158Z - 191330Z

ISOLATED THREAT OF LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS IS EXPECTED THROUGH
MID-MORNING WITH ONGOING MCS ACROSS CENTRAL IL INTO W-CENTRAL/SWRN
IND. BROADER SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL LIKELY NOT OCCUR UNTIL LATE
THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THE
PRESENT TIME.

AT 1145Z...SOME INCREASE IN CELL INTENSITY HAS BEEN OBSERVED NEAR
SRN FLANK OF CONVECTIVE CLUSTER MIGRATING EWD AT 35KT ACROSS
S-CENTRAL IL. CURRENT MOTION BRINGS MOST INTENSE STORMS TO THE
IL/IND BORDER NEAR HUF AT 19/14Z. STORMS ARE PRESENTLY ELEVATED
ABOVE COOL MORNING BOUNDARY LAYER. INFLOW IS FROM THE SW...WHERE ST.
LOUIS VAD WIND PROFILE INDICATES VEERING LOW-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED
WITH WARM ADVECTION...AND A 30-35KT LOW-LEVEL JET.  MUCAPE VALUES
ARE LIKELY BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG IN THIS AREA...WITH MODERATE
SFC-6KM SHEAR OF 25-30KT TO SUPPORT ISOLATED LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING
WINDS. HOWEVER...STORMS WILL LIKELY WEAKEN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS AS
LOW-LEVEL JET WEAKENS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. PRIMARY SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY SHOULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL LATE THIS MORNING. AS BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS...NEW DEVELOPMENT
OF SURFACE BASED STORMS IS EXPECTED WITH GREATER THREAT FOR
SCATTERED SEVERE CELLS. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES GENERATED FROM CURRENT
ELEVATED T-STORMS SHOULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SUCH ACTIVITY LATE THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR ERN MO...SRN IL...INTO SWRN
IND.

..BANACOS.. 05/19/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...

39349037 39838976 39978885 39848785 39548720 39128686
38558670 38218698 37918736 37758797 37688833 37658883
37718942 37848981 38119017 38419046 38819056 

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