[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 182333
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182332 
KSZ000-NEZ000-190130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0906
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0632 PM CDT WED MAY 18 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN AND S CENTRAL KS...N CENTRAL OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 287...

VALID 182332Z - 190130Z

STRONG STORMS CONTINUE OVER PARTS OF NWRN MO INTO NERN KS AHEAD OF
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM SERN NEB SWWD INTO THE TX
PANHANDLE.  WHILE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WIDESPREAD CU
ACROSS KS...LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS SHOW A LAYER OF WEAKER LAPSE RATES
JUST BELOW 700 MB WHICH MAY BE INHIBITING FURTHER VERTICAL
DEVELOPMENT.  SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW IS 25-30 KT ACROSS OK INTO SERN KS
WHILE UPPER FLOW IS NWLY AT 45-55 KT ENHANCING DEEP LAYER SHEAR. 
AIR MASS REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE 2000-2500 J/KG.

GIVEN CURRENT DATA...STORMS COULD STILL DEVELOP SWWD AHEAD OF THE
FRONT DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING LARGE
HAIL.  GIVEN WLY TO NWLY FLOW ALOFT...WOULD ALSO EXPECT DEVELOPMENT
OF LINE/BOW ECHO TYPE ACTIVITY WITH THE THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS.

..MCCARTHY.. 05/18/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...GID...DDC...GLD...

39889935 40729859 41629755 40049725 39059978 

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