[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 181942
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181942 
FLZ000-GAZ000-182145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0905
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0242 PM CDT WED MAY 18 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN PENINSULA/ERN PANHANDLE OF FL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 181942Z - 182145Z

TSTMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS WRN PENINSULA/ERN
PANHANDLE OF FL THROUGH MID/LATE AFTERNOON...WITH POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLD STRONG WIND GUSTS/MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. SEVERE WATCH IS NOT
EXPECTED.

CU FIELD CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY DEEPEN ACROSS THE CNTRL/WRN FL
PENINSULA ATTM...WITH TSTMS ALREADY ONGOING ACROSS THE ERN FL
PANHANDLE. WITH UPPER TROUGH AXIS BISECTING NRN FL...UPPER COOL
POCKET -- AROUND -12 C AT 500 MB PER 12Z TBW/TLH/JAX AND 15Z XMR
RAOBS -- IS CONTRIBUTING TO SLIGHTLY STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
IN COMPARISON TO YESTERDAY. ALTHOUGH SFC CONVERGENCE REMAINS
MARGINAL AT MID AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE FL
PENINSULA...GREATER SHEAR PROFILES EXIST PROGRESSIVELY SWD ACROSS
CNTRL/SRN FL OWING TO BOTH STRONGER MID LEVEL WLY FLOW/LOW LEVEL ELY
FLOW. 

AS TSTMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...MODERATE INSTABILITY
IN ACCORDANCE WITH MODEST SHEAR SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR PULSE-TYPE
STRONG WIND GUSTS/MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.
EXPECTED MARGINAL/ISOLD NATURE WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE A SEVERE WATCH.

..GUYER.. 05/18/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE...

29848209 29668208 29158169 25948056 25598108 27278224
28248239 29088266 30228370 30288471 30768467 30898247 

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