[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 181850
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181850 
MOZ000-KSZ000-OKZ000-182045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0904
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0150 PM CDT WED MAY 18 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST KS...NORTHERN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 181850Z - 182045Z

SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
SOUTHEAST KS/NORTHERN OK DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  WW WILL LIKELY
BE REQUIRED IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAKENING SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDING
ROUGHLY FROM MHK-P28-GAG.  SCATTERED LOW/MID CLOUDS EAST OF THE
BOUNDARY HAVE RETARDED DAYTIME HEATING SOMEWHAT.  HOWEVER...STRONG
HEATING IS OCCURRING IMMEDIATELY WEST OF BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL KS
INTO THE NORTHERN TX PANHANDLE.  THESE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
COUPLED WITH INCREASING SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO HELP BREAK
CAP IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  LATEST RUC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS INITIATION
WILL OCCUR NEAR SURFACE FRONT/DRYLINE INTERSECTION NEAR P28.  OTHER
STORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD ALONG FRONT INTO EASTERN
KS...AND PERHAPS SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN OK LATER THIS AFTERNOON. 
VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL STORMS
CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

..HART.. 05/18/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...

36979915 38169758 39319661 39259527 38759448 37919462
36169634 35849725 35759845 36209914 

WWWW