[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 181829
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181829 
VAZ000-NCZ000-182030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0903
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0129 PM CDT WED MAY 18 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN VA AND NRN NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 181829Z - 182030Z

TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP/SPREAD SEWD THROUGH MID/LATE AFTERNOON
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL/SRN VA AND NRN NC. ALTHOUGH NOT CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED...TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE
SEVERE WATCH.

CU FIELD CONTINUES TO DEEPEN/EVOLVE ALONG LEE OF APPALACHIANS WITH
DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS WARMING WELL THROUGH THE MID/UPPER 70S AT 18Z
AMIDST GENEROUS INSOLATION. MODIFIED 12Z OBSERVED RAOBS IN
ACCORDANCE WITH RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS NEGLIGIBLE CINH NOW
EXISTS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR 750-1250 J/KG SBCAPE. REGION REMAINS ON
PERIPHERY OF MODERATE CYCLONIC MID LEVEL W/NW FLOW...THUS 30-35 KTS
/RELATIVELY HIGHER ACROSS VA/ WOULD CONTRIBUTE TO STORM ORGANIZATION
AS ACTIVITY EVOLVES SEWD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AT LEAST MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL/ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS APPEARS POSSIBLE WITH THE
MOST VIGOROUS TSTMS MID/LATE AFTERNOON GIVEN INSTABILITY/RELATIVELY
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

..GUYER.. 05/18/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...RNK...GSP...

38137937 38037762 37507694 35837737 35597899 36028057
36398051 

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