[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 181722
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181722 
MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-181945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0902
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1222 PM CDT WED MAY 18 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ND/SD...SWRN MN...NRN IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 181722Z - 181945Z

TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS ERN PARTS OF ND AND SD...AS
WELL AS SRN MN...AND PERHAPS NRN IA...OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SOME
OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING
HAIL. THIS REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE
WATCH.

HEIGHT FALLS AND DIFFLUENT MID LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER
TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE WRN DAKOTAS WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD
WARMING AND MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER FROM NWRN IA INTO WRN MN. LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE WAS CURRENTLY MAXIMIZED WITHIN A NARROW WARM
SECTOR EXTENDING FROM THE WRN MN BORDER NWD TO THE RED RIVER VLY.
LIFT WITHIN THIS ZONE...AND PERSISTENT WARM AIR ADVECTION INTO SRN
MN SHOULD SUPPORT CONVECTIVE INITIATION OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS.
HIGH-BASED/POST FRONTAL CONVECTION MAY ALSO INCREASE ACROSS ERN
SD/SERN ND AS MID LEVEL COLD POOL SPREADS EAST ACROSS THIS REGION.

MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITHIN A STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WOULD
SUGGEST SOME LIMITATIONS TO OVERALL STORM ORGANIZATION AND SEVERE
POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...POCKETS OF GREATER SFC-BASED INSTABILITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NARROW WARM SECTOR FROM SERN ND INTO SWRN MN
COULD PROMOTE MORE INTENSE CELLS. GIVEN SHEAR AND FORCING ACROSS THE
REGION...SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY POSE A GREATER THREAT OF HAIL/WIND
AND A SMALL WATCH MAY BE NEEDED OVER THE REGION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.

..CARBIN.. 05/18/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...

42339403 43209641 44419678 45499790 46889816 47139621
46709414 43919263 42939300 

WWWW