[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 171754
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 171753 
SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-172000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0895
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1253 PM CDT TUE MAY 17 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MT....WRN DAKOTAS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 171753Z - 172000Z

THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF ERN MT AND THE WRN DAKOTAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED OVER PARTS OF THE REGION
WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS.

ONE INTENSE SUPERCELL WAS ALREADY TRACKING NWD THROUGH PHILLIPS
COUNTY MT WITHIN LEFT-FRONT QUADRANT OF STRONGLY DIFFLUENT MID LEVEL
WIND MAX. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS
NEWD FROM NRN/CNTRL WY. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LIMITED... STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO ACT ON
WARMING AND MOISTENING LOW LEVEL AIR MASS NEAR SURFACE LOW AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. RESULTING CONVECTION WILL BE SITUATED
IN A STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW LEVEL SELY UPSLOPE FLOW
TOPPED BY 50-60KT SLY FLOW AT MID LEVELS. INITIAL STORMS MAY EXHIBIT
SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTIC WITH HAIL AND HIGH WINDS POSSIBLE. ACTIVITY
MAY ALSO ORGANIZE INTO SHORT LINE SEGMENTS ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD
FRONT LATER TODAY WITH A CHANCE FOR DAMAGING WINDS.

..CARBIN.. 05/17/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...

44990448 45790632 46550742 48400763 48870715 48930394
48670184 45430007 43670002 43260213 44620397 

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