[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 171830
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 171829 
NEZ000-SDZ000-172030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0896
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0129 PM CDT TUE MAY 17 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN SD AND WRN NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 171829Z - 172030Z

A SEVERE TSTM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS PARTS OF NEB AND SRN SD
WITHIN 1-2 HOURS.

DESPITE LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRONG CAP ACROSS THE CNTRL
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...SFC HEATING AND STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING ARE
EXPECTED TO PROMOTE SCATTERED STORM INITIATION ALONG ADVANCING COLD
FRONT/DRYLINE FROM SCNTRL SD TO WRN NEB IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
LATEST LBF SOUNDING SUGGESTS STRONG CAP IS HOLDING ACROSS THIS
REGION. HOWEVER...LATEST SFC OBSERVATIONS DEPICT RAPID WARMING
OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE/COLD FRONT FROM NWRN KS ACROSS WRN
NEB. WHEN THE LBF SOUNDINGS IS ADJUSTED WITH THIS WARM SECTOR AIR
MASS IT APPEARS THAT REMAINING INHIBITION COULD BE ELIMINATED
THROUGH STRONG FRONTAL FORCING. THIS SCENARIO IS FURTHER SUPPORTED
BY LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL QPF FROM THE RUC/NAM AND EXPERIMENTAL
WRF. THESE MODELS SUGGEST THAT STORMS WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT
AND BUILD FROM NNW TO SSE ACROSS SWRN SD INTO NEB IN THE 20-22Z TIME
FRAME.

STORMS MAY EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO A SQUALL LINE GIVEN LINEAR FORCING
ON THE FRONT AND DEEP LAYER MERIDIONAL FLOW. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
APPROACHING 30KT WILL SUPPORT CELL/UPDRAFT PERSISTENCE AND SOME
CHANCE FOR BOWING SEGMENTS WITH WIND DAMAGE AS WELL AS HAIL.

..CARBIN.. 05/17/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...UNR...GLD...

43200211 43629999 42069889 40069827 40080188 41220199
43070222 

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