[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 171510
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 171510 
SCZ000-GAZ000-171745-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0894
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1010 AM CDT TUE MAY 17 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SC AND SERN GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 171510Z - 171745Z

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF SC AND SERN GA. A COUPLE OF
THESE STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AND/OR HIGH WINDS.
PARTS OF THE REGION WILL BE INCLUDED IN A SLGT RISK IN THE NEXT DAY
1 OUTLOOK.

ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BENEATH MODEST LAPSE RATES OF 6-6.5 C/KM
AND DIURNAL HEATING WERE CONTRIBUTING TO THE STRENGTHENING
INSTABILITY ACROSS ERN SC LATE THIS MORNING. WEAK INHIBITION AND
FOCUSED ASCENT ALONG BACKDOOR COLD FRONT AND RESIDUAL STATIONARY
FRONT SHOULD AID STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MARGINAL FOR STORM
ORGANIZATION GIVEN 15-20KT MID LEVEL FLOW. HOWEVER...MAGNITUDE OF
CAPE...PRESENCE OF LOW LEVEL BOUNDARIES...AND DRIER MID LEVEL AIR
SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST...WILL ALL LEND SUPPORT FOR
A FEW WEAKLY ORGANIZED STORM CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF HAIL AND STRONG
OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS.

..CARBIN.. 05/17/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...JAX...FFC...TAE...

31478108 31008176 30828360 31208439 31388447 31858428
32338386 32808298 33488216 34278164 34628118 34688066
34667986 33807879 33187907 32527994 32048069 

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