[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 170140
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 170139 
WYZ000-UTZ000-IDZ000-170245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0893
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0839 PM CDT MON MAY 16 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN ID THROUGH EXTREME WRN WY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 282...

VALID 170139Z - 170245Z

LINE OF STORMS OVER SERN ID WILL CROSS INTO WRN WY BY 02Z. ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY...BUT OVERALL
THREAT IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY MARGINAL. WW 282 MIGHT BE CANCELLED
BEFORE ITS EXPIRATION TIME OF 04Z.

A LINE OF STORMS CONTINUES EAST OVER SERN ID. INSTABILITY IS VERY
MARGINAL DOWNSTREAM FROM THE LINE AND WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY
LIMITING FACTOR. UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AND A PRONOUNCED PRESSURE RISE FALL COUPLET WILL MAINTAIN STRONG
FORCING FOR THE LINE TO PERSIST A WHILE LONGER DESPITE THE LIMITED
INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY
MARGINAL DOWNSTREAM FROM THE LINE WHERE INSTABILITY IS MEAGER AND
TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS ARE NOT AS LARGE AS FARTHER SW.

..DIAL.. 05/17/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RIW...SLC...PIH...

42051138 43301132 43961148 44081074 43881022 42841023
42031066 41931113 

WWWW