[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 170001
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 170000 
UTZ000-NVZ000-170130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0892
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0700 PM CDT MON MAY 16 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN UT

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 281...

VALID 170000Z - 170130Z

THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST WITH LINE
OF FORCED STORMS THOUGH SWRN...CNTRL AND PARTS OF NRN UT NEXT FEW
HOURS. NRN PART OF THE LINE WILL BEGIN MOVING E OF WW 281 AND INTO
SWRN WY BY 0130Z...BUT A NEW WW EAST OF 281 IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.

A FORCED LINE OF STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG AND JUST E OF A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS FROM THE SALT LAKE CITY AREA SWWD TO W OF MILFORD. THE NRN
PART OF THE LINE HAS A WELL DEVELOPED COLD POOL AND CONTINUES EAST
AT AROUND 35-40 KT WHILE MORE SCATTERED CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING
ALONG THE PORTION OF THE FRONT OVER SWRN UT. STRONG FORCING
ACCOMPANYING THE COLD POOL...COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD
HELP TO MAINTAIN STORMS INTO THE EVENING. INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL
DOWNSTREAM FROM THE LINE WITH MLCAPE GENERALLY AOB 500 J/KG.
HOWEVER...LARGE TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINTS SPREADS FROM 35-40F AND STRONG
GRADIENT FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND NEXT
FEW HOURS.

..DIAL.. 05/17/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SLC...VEF...

38081408 40201288 41611264 41891137 38751117 38091234 

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