[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 162148
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162147 
WYZ000-IDZ000-162315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0891
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0447 PM CDT MON MAY 16 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN ID THROUGH WRN WY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 162147Z - 162315Z

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS SERN ID NEXT FEW
HOURS. DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. A WW MAY BE
NEEDED FOR THIS AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 30 MIN.

LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
GREAT BASIN AREA. A STRONG COLD FRONT ACCOMPANYING THIS FEATURE
EXTENDS FROM CNTRL ID SWD THROUGH ERN NV. SURFACE TEMPERATURES OVER
SERN ID ARE ONLY IN THE UPPER 50S...BUT SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE
LOWER 50S AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH COOLING MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH ARE
CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE FROM 500 TO 1000 J/KG. THE STRONG FORCING
ALONG THE FRONT WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN CONVECTION THROUGH SERN ID THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES
WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR BOW ECHOES AND EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS.

..DIAL.. 05/16/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RIW...SLC...PIH...MSO...

42111047 42381371 44331315 44421078 43291010 

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