[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 162112
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162111 
KSZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-162315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0890
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0411 PM CDT MON MAY 16 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN SD / WRN NEB / NWRN KS / EXTREME NERN CO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 162111Z - 162315Z

A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH STRONG WINDS AND HAIL.

VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES CU FIELDS FORMING ALONG DRYLINE FROM NEAR
RAP SWD INTO NERN CO / NWRN KS. MODIFIED FORECAST SOUNDINGS YIELD
MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING E OF DRYLINE WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE
HOLDING IN THE LOWER 50S. ALTHOUGH FORCING IS WEAK WITH LARGE SCALE
UPPER RIDGE...CONTINUED HEATING AND CONVERGENCE WITHIN SURFACE
TROUGH SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.

AREA WIND PROFILERS INDICATE WEAK NWLY FLOW ALOFT WITH MODERATE SLY
SURFACE FLOW...PRODUCING HODOGRAPHS FAVORABLE FOR A FEW LONG LIVED
UPDRAFTS. DEEPLY MIXED AND LOW RH BOUNDARY LAYERS INDICATE STRONG
EVAPORATION POTENTIAL WITH LOCALLY SEVERE OUTFLOW WINDS POSSIBLE BY
LATE AFTERNOON / EARLY EVENING. ANY STORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO INGEST
HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR OVER ERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WILL HAVE THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL.

..JEWELL.. 05/16/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS...

41620315 43190362 44270435 44820450 44920398 44320172
43680104 42500021 41030031 40160021 39289993 38810079
38770202 39980257 40720274 

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