[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 161830
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161829 
UTZ000-IDZ000-NVZ000-162100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0889
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0129 PM CDT MON MAY 16 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN NEVADA..NORTHERN UT AND SOUTHERN ID

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 161829Z - 162100Z

THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER PARTS OF THE GRT BASIN.  A
WW MAY BE REQUIRED IN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS.

SATELLITE AND VWP DATA CONTINUE TO SHOW EWD ADVANCE...AND
AMPLIFICATION...OF STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW CROSSING NRN CA. 
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ATTM EXTENDS FROM NEAR BOI SSW TO NEAR TPH. 
THIS FEATURE SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING E AT 25-30 KTS AS UPPER SYSTEM
ASSUMES A SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT.  

RECENT SURFACE ANALYSES HAVE SHOWN DEEPENING OF A SURFACE LOW ATTM
OVER CNTRL NV. THIS FEATURE IS CENTERED NEAR INTERSECTION OF MAIN
COLD FRONT WITH A SHALLOWER...NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY THAT
EXTENDS ENE TO NEAR SLC.  THE LOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS
IT MOVES ENE ALONG THE BOUNDARY INTO NRN UT OR FAR SRN ID.

FILTERED SUNSHINE SHOULD CONTINUE AHEAD OF NV COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.  THIS WILL SERVE TO STEEPEN LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
INCREASE TEMPERATURE-DEW POINT SPREADS.  THESE FACTORS...COUPLED
WITH STRENGTHENING LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF UPPER
TROUGH...SHOULD FOSTER INTENSIFICATION OF THUNDERSTORMS NOW PRESENT
ALONG THE FRONT.

THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHOULD SLOWLY BACK AND BECOME PARALLEL
TO THE FRONT...WITH 500 MB SPEEDS INCREASING TO AOA 50 KTS.  AS A
RESULT...SETUP MAY BECOME FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SQUALL
LINE WITH EMBEDDED SMALL SCALE LEWPS/BOWS.  GIVEN THE DEGREE OF
FORCING AND THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG DOWNDRAFTS...A THREAT WILL
EXIST FOR HIGH WIND AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

..CORFIDI.. 05/16/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SLC...PIH...BOI...LKN...

42531567 41251656 39741665 38461635 39021440 39731311
40801173 43031169 

WWWW