[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 152359
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152358 
VAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-160100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0887
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0658 PM CDT SUN MAY 15 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...THE ERN CAROLINAS THROUGH SERN VA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 279...

VALID 152358Z - 160100Z

THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR ANOTHER COUPLE
HOURS OR SO. WW 279 WILL EXPIRE AT 01Z..BUT TRENDS SHOULD BE FOR THE
SEVERE THREAT TO DECREASE WITH TIME...AND THEREFORE ANOTHER WW IS
NOT ANTICIPATED.

EARLY THIS EVENING A SQUALL LINE EXTENDS FROM NERN NC SWWD THROUGH
ERN SC. STORMS WITHIN THE LINE SHOWED A BRIEF INCREASE IN INTENSITY
AS THEY INTERCEPTED THE SEA BREEZE...BUT RECENT TRENDS SHOW AN
OVERALL WEAKENING TREND. MODEST INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE FROM 800 TO
1200 J/KG EXIST EAST OF THE LINE AND WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE WITH
LOSS OF HEATING. THEREFORE...TREND SHOULD BE FOR STORMS TO UNDERGO
AN OVERALL WEAKENING TREND AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES. THREAT
FOR ISOLATED HAIL AND STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE
ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS...BUT THE THREAT IS TOO LIMITED IN TIME AND
SPACE TO WARRANT ANOTHER WW.

..DIAL.. 05/15/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...

33327974 32828129 33238176 33668093 33997994 35907804
36727753 37547567 37257516 36237456 35757508 34987689 

WWWW