[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 152052
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152052 
NMZ000-TXZ000-152215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0886
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0352 PM CDT SUN MAY 15 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND SRN NM / FAR W TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 152052Z - 152215Z

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY...WITH LARGE
HAIL THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT.

WEAK MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOW OVER NM WITH 25-30 KT MID LEVEL FLOW
BEING REPORTED BY AREA PROFILERS AND VADS.  POCKETS OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY HAVE DEVELOPED DUE TO STRONG HEATING AND STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES.  CAP IS HOLDING OVER FAR ERN / SERN NM IN ASSOCIATION
WITH CLOUD COVER AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.

BEST COMBINATION OF PARAMETERS FOR SEVERE HAIL APPEARS TO BE FROM
SAN MIGUEL COUNTY SWD TOWARD EPZ...WITH EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
VECTORS NEAR 35 KTS AND MODERATE CAPE. BUNKERS STORM MOTION
ESTIMATES FROM EPZ TCU PROFILER AS WELL AS FORECAST RUC SOUNDINGS
INDICATE SWD MOTIONS FOR RIGHT MOVERS...AND THIS LOOKS TO BE SIMILAR
TO CURRENT STORM MOTIONS OVER SAN MIGUEL AND LINCOLN COUNTIES. WITH
SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF HEATING...THE AIR MASS S AND E OF THESE STORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE...ALLOWING FOR MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT
INTO ERN AND SERN NM WHERE IT IS CAPPED AS OF 20Z.

..JEWELL.. 05/15/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

31780770 32560746 33640690 34840609 35430551 35450401
34590351 33250336 32450372 32000474 31400595 31770656 

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