[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 152021
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152021 
VAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-152145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0885
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0321 PM CDT SUN MAY 15 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SRN/ERN NC...SERN VA...CENTRAL/ERN
SC...EXTREME E-CENTRAL GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 279...

VALID 152021Z - 152145Z

SCATTERED STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS CONTINUE TO MOVE NEWD ACROSS PORTIONS
ERN SC/NC E OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY...WITH CONTINUED
POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS. PEAK HEATING PERIOD FOR
ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE
AWAY FROM CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS...ALONG WITH FAVORABLY WELL-MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYERS TO MAINTAIN BOTH WIND AND HAIL THREAT AT SFC.

ADDITIONALLY...ISOLATED SEVERE TSTMS OVER PORTIONS SERN VA ARE IN A
BROKEN BAND FROM CHARLES CITY AREA SWWD TO NEAR DAN.  THIS BAND IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT EWD INTO NRN PORTIONS WW OVER NEXT 2-3 HOURS. 
INFLOW-LAYER AIR MASS FOR THIS ACTIVITY IS CHARACTERIZED BY LOWER
SFC TEMPS BUT STILL SFC-BASED BUOYANCY...WITH MLCAPES 500-1000 J/KG
AD LOWER LCL THAN ACTIVITY FARTHER SE. AMBIENT LOW LEVEL SHEAR
PROFILES ARE RELATIVELY WEAK BECAUSE OF SMALL DIRECTIONAL CHANGE
WITH HEIGHT...BUT MAY BE ENHANCED BY BAY/SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES AND
TSTM OUTFLOWS ON A LOCAL SCALE.

..EDWARDS.. 05/15/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...

32758140 34488239 37757543 36037442 

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